Stay the Course 🌿
I was shaken. But I held firm. These are the records.
The market shakes every year. Interest rate hikes, wars, inflation, currency spikes, semiconductor crises — news headlines always sell fear. There were moments when, in the face of that fear, I didn't press the sell button, didn't stop my automatic transfers, and actually bought more.
This section is a raw record of those moments. It's not a well-crafted theory, but an honest account of why I held on even when watching my account melt down, and what I learned in the process.
The hardest thing in investing is not 'what to buy', but 'when not to sell'. I hope these writings become a small anchor for someone shaking in the midst of a market crash.
27 records
[Macroeconomic Survival Epilogue] Asking Again What My Investing Is For
In a market where familiar relationships between prices, currencies, and rates no longer worked as expected, I kept looking for a better forecast. While my long-bond view was wrong, interest from short- and long-term bonds kept arriving. My future paycheck had already begun in a small form.
[Macroeconomic Survival Ch. 5] I Tried to Forecast Rates and Currencies Together
I expected the United States to cut rates while Japan raised them. Combining US long bonds and yen exposure in one product appeared to spread risk, but it required me to judge long-term yields and two currencies at the same time.
[Macroeconomic Survival Ch. 4] Preparing for Inflation Added More Risk
I added LTPZ to address EDV's inflation risk, then bought TMF while waiting for a rebound. Only later did I see that an inflation-linked bond can still carry substantial duration risk, and that a daily leveraged ETF changes the cost of waiting.
[Macroeconomic Survival Ch. 3] I Extended Duration While Waiting for the Peak in Rates
As inflation receded and rate hikes paused, I moved from cash-like assets into TLT and EDV. I had intended the position to reduce equity volatility, but I also wanted to profit from a decline in rates.
[Macroeconomic Survival Ch. 2] Only After Retreating to Cash Did I Learn the Value of Waiting
Only after stepping back from long-duration bonds did I reconsider the role of cash. SGOV, Korean CD-rate ETFs, and cash management accounts gave me room to stop forcing a forecast and wait before deciding again.
[Macroeconomic Survival Ch. 1] I Expected Slower Growth in Korea, but the Market Moved on a Different Clock
I expected Korea to enter a low-growth era and cut rates before the United States. Between that economic view and the timing of bond prices were inflation, exchange rates, and a much longer wait than I had allowed for.
[Macroeconomic Survival Prologue] The Asset I Trusted Most Was the One I Understood Least
I could accept falling stocks. But when the bonds that were supposed to protect me fell too, I realized I had been calling an asset safe without understanding what its safety actually meant.
The Essence of Leveraged Investing: The Mirror of Mechanical Quants and a Practical Answer for Individuals
Using Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix single-stock leveraged products as a case study, this article examines daily resets and volatility drag through eight simulations.
Beyond the Metaphor of the Money Vessel: Why We Must Train Our 'Money Muscle'
Breaking the static shackles of the commonly known "Money Vessel" and proposing the active paradigm of the "Money Muscle" that grows through tearing and recovering every day.
Rule of 40 and 60: What the Numbers Can and Cannot Tell Me
Why I use revenue growth plus margin as a first-pass research screen, and why the score is not proof of quality or future returns.
SpaceX's $1.7 Trillion Moat Isn't Rockets, It's 'People'
Behind Elon Musk's narrative of conquering space lies a group of genius engineers who translated the impossible into reality. The true value we must chase is not just launch vehicles, but this overwhelming 'talent density'.
[Evolution of Investment Ch. 99] Epilogue: Investing is Not Predicting the Market, but a System to Manage Oneself
Discarding the arrogance of trying to predict the market, and designing an unshakable survival system. An invitation to Part 2, 'Macroeconomic Survival'.
[Evolution of Investment Ch. 10] Evolution Continues: Building My 3-Core Survival Portfolio
There is no 'ultimate answer'. Assembling my 'Evolutionary Core' to defend against human frailty.
[Evolution of Investment Ch.9] A Momentum Strategy for Market Concentration: SPMO
Reconsidering the limits of a defensive strategy in the concentrated post-2023 market and examining SPMO's rules-based approach to momentum.
[Evolution of Investment Ch.8] The Shield that Feeds on Fear: The Birth of SCHD
A review of the dividend index rules tracked by SCHD, its live record, and the difference between backtests and actual performance.
[Evolution of Investment Ch.7] The Madness of Human Psychology and the Birth of Smart Beta
The Dot-com Bubble and Financial Crisis exposed both mechanical and emotional limits. This chapter follows the emergence of Smart Beta as one possible complement.
[Evolution of Investment Ch.6] Riding on Greed: Discovery of Momentum
Human greed becomes the fuel for trends. The discovery of Mark Carhart's momentum factor and securing the final spear (SPMO) for the portfolio.
[Evolution of Investment Ch.5] Barcode of Innovation: ETF, The Giant Vessel for All Weapons
The birth of SPY in 1993. A monumental event that provided an 'express highway' to deliver complex factor strategies directly to individual investors.
[Chapter 4] Exploiting Fear: The Discovery of the Value Factor
Examining the value premium observed amid public fear and panic selling, and the emergence of the Fama-French 3-Factor Model and Smart Beta.
[Chapter 3] Humans are Not Rational: Black Monday and Behavioral Finance
Placing a strong interpretation of market efficiency beside the 1987 Black Monday crash to consider how information and investor psychology shape prices.
[Chapter 2] The Heretic of Wall Street: The First Weapon to Defend My Ignorance, the Index Fund
How diversification theory became a low-cost index fund that individuals could buy, and the role John Bogle played.
[Chapter 1] Investing is Not Art, But Science: The Great Awakening
Two genius scholars, Markowitz and Sharpe, brought math and statistics to the gambling den of 1950s Wall Street. The philosophical roots that made us abandon prediction and buy the entire market.
[Prologue] Rebuilding My Survival Principles After 11 Years of 0% Returns
The evolution of investment for survival beyond simple index investing. From the arrogant failures of 2010 to the Big Tech madness of the 2020s, why we need weapons.
A Great Invention Comparable to the Alphabet and the Wheel: How John Bogle Created the Index Fund
The untold story of the index fund, an invention Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson compared to the alphabet and the wheel. Why did John Bogle give up immense wealth to become the hero of ordinary investors?
Warren Buffett Donated Another Billion — And I Reflected on Myself
In November 2024, I saw the news that grandpa Buffett donated another 1.1 billion dollars. At that moment, I was checking the return rate on my account.
Why did I start studying? Why is it necessary? Educate yourself
December 2022, as I was getting beaten down by the market, I frantically jotted down macroeconomic concepts. Why did I have to study this hard?
Why I Stayed the Course During the October 2022 Crash
8% inflation, 3 consecutive giant steps. In October 2022, when my account was melting down, what kept me going was not knowledge, but acknowledging my 'ignorance'.